Trial by Jeory

The Office for National Statistics today released the first tranche of the 2011 census statistics and they confirmed what we already knew–that the numbers living in Tower Hamlets have gone up.

In fact, this borough had the largest rise in population of anywhere in England and Wales over the past decade (Newham was second).

No doubt there will be much froth about this and the borough’s Conservatives were first off the mark when it came to the party political press releases today, calling for a moratorium on housing development.

But let’s look at the numbers. The population went up by some 53,000, from 201,000 to 254,000, a rise of 26.4 per cent. That’s equivalent to 5,300 people moving here every year.

For a better context, that’s 14.5 people a day, or about one person a day for each of the borough’s 17 wards.

I don’t think the numbers in themselves are huge and in some ways it’s thumbs up that so many people want to live in Tower Hamlets (they clearly don’t follow the politics here). But the Tories are right to ask questions about infrastructure. In Bow, where I live, there has been a noticeable strain on public transport, schools and doctors’ surgeries over the past decade. I know it’s the same in other parts of Tower Hamlets.

As well as the rise in population numbers, there’s another interesting fact in the ONS report, which can be read in full here. Table 7, which I’ve copied below, shows the borough has also experienced the largest growth in the number of households, at 28.2 per cent. Others can help me out here, but doesn’t this indicate we’re coping with population boom on a housing front?

However, we do need more homes of a decent build quality…built with proper consultation with residents so their concerns about overcrowding and creaking services can be properly addressed (the latest being in Bromley-by-Bow last week, as reported by the East London Advertiser here).

Here’s the Tory press release,,,and I’ve copied the various ONS tables below that.

PRESS RELEASE

Tower Hamlets Population grows by 26.4% in ten years and the Borough is now the fourth most densely populated in the country.

The preliminary census results for 2011 show that Tower Hamlets, Britain’s poorest borough, is now the fourth most densely populated in the country with a population of 254,000 people living in just 19.78 square kilometres. Nationwide, the UK population has surged by 3.7 million people, an increase of 7.1%, whereas in Tower Hamlets it has increased by 26.4%, in an area that was already overcrowded and faces health and social issues relating to overcrowding.

Overall England is more densely populated than any of the G8 countries and parts of Tower Hamlets have a higher density than Hong Kong and Singapore.

Councillor David Snowdon, Conservative deputy leader and spokesman on resources said:

“Tower Hamlets is facing the problems of an ever expanding population without investments being made in transport infrastructure, schools or healthcare. As an Isle of Dogs councillor I regularly meet parents whose infant and primary age children are being sent to schools as far away as Aldgate. However, Mayor Rahman persists in wanting ever more housing development without considering the consequences.”

“This week more housing schemes were announced for the Isle of Dogs, but no additional school places.”

“One scheme by a company called Chalegrove, who are based in Jersey, is for yet another skyscraper and then some distance away, a family sized housing development. Amazingly this company are holding a consultation exhibition on one day, Thursday 19th July, between just 10am and 7pm. To make matters even worse, thousands of residents have yet to be notified about this consultation exercise.” 

“Tower Hamlets needs a development breathing space before the strain on health and education facilities becomes intolerable.”

UPDATE – 6.25pm, Monday

I’ve just been looking at the Census statistics for population by each five-year age bracket and created a lovely little table for you. It shows the numbers for each age segment for both Tower Hamlets and Hackney, whose population is about 8,000 lower than ours. The table also shows the per centage of the total population for each age…and the difference between Tower Hamlets and Hackney in absolute terms.

Essentially, the boroughs have a very similar demographic until the age of 20. Between 20 and 34, Tower Hamlets has greater numbers, while Hackney has more over 35s.

Mayor Lutfur Rahman has also put out a statement, saying the increase is partly due to the Olympic effect…which is probably a load of hot air:

“The inclusion of Tower Hamlets, Waltham Forest, Hackney and Newham in the top 10 areas for population growth is, I believe, a reflection of the positive impact of the Olympics in bringing about vibrant new growth in east London.

“Whilst I am of course concerned about the demands of supporting a growing population at a time of Government cuts, the council has had effective plans for growth in place, using tools such as population projections for our work on planning for pupil places, for example,” he said.

“I’m committed to continuing to support growth with my plans for 4000 additional new homes and our ongoing work to support our residents, especially the borough’s younger people, into work.”

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