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Archive for December 11th, 2012

Much more detail about the 2011 Census has been released today and I tweeted earlier that the White British population in Tower Hamlets has fallen by some 12 percentage points since the last survey in 2001. Those who classified themselves as White British now make up about 31 per cent of the borough’s 254,000 population (79,000), compared with about 43 per cent a decade ago (84,000).

That was expected. Overall, when other white population groups such as eastern European are considered, the white population is now a minority in Tower Hamlets. It has fallen from 51.4 per cent in 2001 to 45.2 per cent in 2011.

At the same time, the Bangladeshi population has become the largest group by ethnicity (81,000 now versus 65,000 in 2001), but in percentage terms, it is smaller than a decade ago: 33.4 per cent in 2001 to 32 per cent in 2011.

This is largely because the overall population of Tower Hamlets has increased by some 48,000, the main driver of which appears to be those classifying themselves as White Other, eg Europe/US/Aus/NZ/Eastern Europe. In numbers terms, this category has increased from 12,825 to 31,550, and in percentage terms from 6.5 per cent in 2001 to 12.3 per cent now.

The Somali population also seems to have increased significantly, with the ‘Black African’ category tripling in size from about 3,000 to more than 9,000 in a decade.

Constructing a direct comparison between the two census exercises is tricky because some of the ethnic group category names have changed in the 10 years. For example, the 2011 data includes a new ‘White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller’ category, which 10 years ago would have been included in ‘White: other’ or ‘White: Irish’. There are similar changes around the way British Chinese seem to have been counted.

For that reason, I thought I’d post a couple of tables and then manipulate the categories to try and give a reasonable comparison.

Here’s the first table showing the 2011 Census date by group, in numbers and percentages:

 2011 Tower Hamlets
All categories: Ethnic group 254,096
Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi 81,377 32.03%
White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British 79,231 31.18%
White: Other White 31,550 12.42%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African 9,495 3.74%
Asian/Asian British: Chinese 8,109 3.19%
Asian/Asian British: Indian 6,787 2.67%
Asian/Asian British: Other Asian 5,786 2.28%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean 5,341 2.10%
White: Irish 3,863 1.52%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black 3,793 1.49%
Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group 3,214 1.26%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: Other Mixed 3,053 1.20%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Asian 2,961 1.17%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black Caribbean 2,837 1.12%
Other ethnic group: Arab 2,573 1.01%
Asian/Asian British: Pakistani 2,442 0.96%
Mixed/multiple ethnic group: White and Black African 1,509 0.59%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller 175 0.07%

And here’s the 2001 data in the same format:

2001 Tower Hamlets
All 196,106
White: British 84,151 42.91%
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi 65,553 33.43%
White: Other White 12,825 6.54%
Black or Black British: Black African 6,596 3.36%
Black or Black British: Black Caribbean 5,225 2.66%
White: Irish 3,823 1.95%
Chinese or other ethnic group: Chinese 3,573 1.82%
Asian or Asian British: Indian 3,001 1.53%
Chinese or other ethnic group: Other ethnic group 2,312 1.18%
Asian or Asian British: Other Asian 1,767 0.90%
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean 1,568 0.80%
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani 1,486 0.76%
Mixed: White and Asian 1,348 0.69%
Mixed: Other Mixed 1,168 0.60%
Black or Black British: Other Black 921 0.47%
Mixed: White and Black African 789 0.40%

And here’s an attempt to compare between the two decades. With one exception, I’ve used the 2011 categories for the descriptions – I combined ‘White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller’ into ‘White: Irish’. And from the 2001 data, I combined the two Chinese categories into the 2011 ‘Asian/Asian British Chinese’ description. That left two categories in 2011 that don’t seem to have any easy equivalent in 2001 – ‘Other ethnic group: Arab’, and ‘Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group’ – so I’ve just included them without any comparison to 2001.

(I can’t find a way in WordPress to paste this Excel table in the way I want to, so for an easier way to read it, click on the image below.)

2011 census data

2011 2001 Change
All 254,096 % 196,106 % Numbers % points % change in numbers
Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi 81,377 32.0% 65,553 33.4% 15,824 -1.4% 24.1%
White: British 79,231 31.2% 84,151 42.9% -4,920 -11.7% -5.8%
White: Other White 31,550 12.4% 12,825 6.5% 18,725 5.9% 146.0%
Black/African/Carib/Black British: African 9,495 3.7% 6,596 3.4% 2,899 0.4% 44.0%
Asian/Asian British: Chinese 8,109 3.2% 5,885 3.0% 2,224 0.2% 37.8%
Asian/Asian British: Indian 6,787 2.7% 3,001 1.5% 3,786 1.1% 126.2%
Asian/Asian British: Other Asian 5,786 2.3% 1,767 0.9% 4,019 1.4% 227.4%
Black/African/Carib/Black British: Caribbean 5,341 2.1% 5,225 2.7% 116 -0.6% 2.2%
White: Irish/Irish Traveller 4,038 1.6% 3,823 1.9% 215 -0.4% 5.6%
Black/Af/Carib/Black British: Other Black 3,793 1.5% 921 0.5% 2,872 1.0% 311.8%
Other ethnic group: Any other ethnic group 3,214 1.3% 0.0% 3,214 1.3%
Mixed: Other Mixed 3,053 1.2% 1,168 0.6% 1,885 0.6% 161.4%
Mixed: White and Asian 2,961 1.2% 1,348 0.7% 1,613 0.5% 119.7%
Mixed: White and Black Caribbean 2,837 1.1% 1,568 0.8% 1,269 0.3% 80.9%
Other ethnic group: Arab 2,573 1.0% 0.0% 2,573 1.0%
Asian/Asian British: Pakistani 2,442 1.0% 1,486 0.8% 956 0.2% 64.3%
Mixed: White and Black African 1,509 0.6% 789 0.4% 720 0.2% 91.3%

So, what are the main headlines?

1. The overall population of the borough has increased by some 58,000 in 10 years, a rise of about 29.6 per cent, or 16 people a day.So, what are the main headlines?

2. The British Bangladeshi/Bangladeshi population is now the largest single group in the borough, but it has fallen as a percentage of the overall total;

3. The overall White population of Tower Hamlets is now a minority in the borough, comprising 45.2 per cent of the population.

4. The White British population is the only population group to have fallen in terms of actual numbers – by almost 5,000 (either through having left the borough, and/or deaths outweighing births);

5. The ‘White Other’ population has boomed. I suspect this is due to an influx of newcomers from Europe/eastern Europe and bankers from North America.

I’d imagine the EDL will be most disappointed with these figures. How frustrating for them to see that Bangladeshis aren’t exactly “over-breeding”. I wonder if instead the EDL will turn its fire on the ‘White Other’ population that seems to be fuelling the small boom in numbers.

Somehow, I doubt it.

Your observations are welcome…and please correct any glaring mistakes I’ve made! (Ethnic group breakdowns by age category are not yet available, I’m afraid.)

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